EU Interim Forecast: Coming Out of Recession but Uncertainty Remains High
added: 2009-09-15
The economic situation has improved markedly since the second quarter, pointing to a better growth outlook for the second half of the year. But as economic activity at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009 was worse than initially estimated, GDP is still expected to fall by 4% overall this year in both the EU and the euro area, as forecast in the spring. However, uncertainty remains rife, and while the recovery may surprise on the upside in the very short term, how sustainable it will be remains to be seen. The Commission's forecasts for inflation in 2009 also remain unchanged at 0.9% in the EU and 0.4% in the euro area, with the base effects of past hikes in energy and food prices, which were pushing prices down, fading away and no other significant inflationary pressures in view.
