The Conference Board CEI for France, a measure of current economic activity, also increased in February, with all of its components rising. Between August 2010 and February 2011, the coincident economic index grew by 1.0 percent (about a 1.9 percent annual rate), slightly above the growth of 0.8 percent (a 1.6 percent annual rate) that prevailed during the last six months. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have been very widespread recently. Meanwhile, real GDP grew at a 1.4 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010, following growth of 1.0 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2010.
The Conference Board LEI for France has been on a general upward trend since April 2009, but its six-month growth rate has moderated since reaching a high in late 2009. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for France has been on a rising trend since reaching a trough in August 2009, amid widespread strength among its components. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the expansion in economic activity that began in May 2009 should continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS
Four of the seven components of the leading economic index increased in February. The positive contributors to the index - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are building permits (residential), the yield spread, new unemployment claims (inverted), and stock prices. The negative contributors to the index - beginning with the largest negative contributor - are industrial new orders, the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing, and production expectations.
With the increase of 0.5 percent in February, the leading economic index now stands at 113.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.9 percent in January and increased 0.7 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index increased 2.6 percent, and six of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
All four components of the coincident economic index increased in February. The positive contributors to the index - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - were personal consumption, wage and salaries, employment, and industrial production.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in February, the coincident economic index now stands at 104.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in January and increased 0.1 percent in December. During the six-month period through February, the index increased 1.0 percent, with all four series making a positive contribution (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
