The Conference Board CEI for France, a measure of current economic activity, remained unchanged in March. Between September 2010 and March 2011, the coincident economic index increased 1.0 percent (a 1.9 percent annual rate), up slightly from 0.7 percent (a 1.4 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have been very widespread, with all four components advancing in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 4.0 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2011, stronger than the growth of 1.4 percent annual rate in the final quarter of 2010.
The Conference Board LEI for France has been on a general upward trend since April 2009. Its six-month growth rate has remained fairly stable in recent months amid widespread strengths among its components. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for France remained flat in March, but the index has been on a rising trend since reaching its most recent trough in August 2009. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should expand moderately in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS
Four of the seven components of the leading economic index increased in March. The positive contributors to the index - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are industrial new orders, the yield spread, production expectations, and the inverted new unemployment claims. The negative contributors to the index - beginning with the largest negative contributor - are stock prices, the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing, and building permits (residential).
With the increase of 0.9 percent in March, the leading economic index now stands at 114.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in February and increased 0.9 percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the index increased 2.9 percent, and six of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Two of the four components of the coincident economic index increased in March. The positive contributors to the index were employment and wage and salaries. Industrial production and personal consumption declined in March.
After remaining unchanged in March, the coincident economic index now stands at 105.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in February and increased 0.2 percent in January. During the six-month period through March, the index increased 1.0 percent, with all four series making a positive contribution (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
