The Conference Board CEI for the UK, a measure of current economic activity, remained unchanged in December, following a small increase in the previous month. During the last half of 2010, the coincident economic index increased 0.2 percent (about a 0.4 percent annual rate), below the increase of 0.6 percent (about a 1.2 percent annual rate) during the first half of 2010. However, the strengths among the coincident indicators were more widespread than the weaknesses during the last six months. Meanwhile, real GDP declined at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010, following an increase of 2.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter and an increase of 4.6 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2010.
The Conference Board LEI for the UK resumed increasing in December, and is now 14.1 percent above its most recent trough in March 2009. The index has been increasing since the second quarter of 2009, but its growth has continued to moderate. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the UK, which rose sharply between February and August 2010, has been essentially flat since then. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should continue expanding, but at a moderate pace in the near-term.
LEADING INDICATORS.
Six of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. increased in December. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were order book volume, the yield spread, stock prices, total gross operating surplus of corporations, productivity for the whole economy, and volume of expected output. Consumer confidence declined in December.
With the 0.7 percent increase in December, The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. now stands at 102.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in November and increased 0.4 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the leading economic index increased 2.4 percent, with four of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 64.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. increased in December. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were industrial production, real household disposable income, and employment. Retail sales declined in December.
After remaining unchanged in December, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. now stands at 102.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in November and remained unchanged in October. During the six-month period through December, the coincident economic index increased 0.2 percent, with three of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
