The Conference Board CEI for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased in June. Between December 2010 and June 2011, the coincident economic index increased 0.2 percent (about a 0.4 percent annual rate), somewhat faster than the growth of 0.1 percent (about a 0.2 percent annual rate) during the last half of 2010. However, the strengths and weaknesses among the coincident indicators have remained balanced in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 0.8 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2011, after increasing at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the first quarter.
The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. remained unchanged in June, amid widespread weaknesses among its components. Despite this month’s pause, the index remains on a rising trend which began in the second quarter of 2009. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. increased slightly in June, though the index has remained largely flat this year. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity will likely continue expanding, albeit at a moderate pace, in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS
Three of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. increased in June. The positive contributors – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were the yield spread, consumer confidence, and productivity for the whole economy. The negative contributors – in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – were volume of expected output, stock prices, order book volume, and total gross operating surplus of corporations.
After remaining unchanged in June, The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. stands at 104.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in May and increased 0.3 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the leading economic index increased 1.9 percent, with three of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 42.9 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. increased in June. The positive contributors – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were employment, retail sales, and real household disposable income. Industrial production remained unchanged in June.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in June, The Conference Board CEI for the U.K. now stands at 102.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in May and increased 0.1 percent in April. During the six-month period through June, the coincident economic index increased 0.2 percent, with two of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
